Article image

Trade wars simmer down as Beijing adjusts tariffs but keeps the wok hot

Wah, you know how it is when two aunties argue at the wet market over the price of pork belly? China and Europe just had their own version of this drama, complete with tariff negotiations instead of flying choppers. Beijing announced this week it’s lowering anti-dumping duties on EU pork imports after a year long investigation, slicing rates from as high as 62.4% down to between 4.9% and 19.8%. Five year validity some more. Not bad right?

But why all this wayang over pig parts, you ask? Simple lah. This whole charade started when Europe got salty about Chinese electric vehicles flooding their market last October, slapping tariffs up to 45%. China, being China, counterpunched by opening investigations into EU pork exports. Because nothing says 'don't play play' like weaponizing breakfast staples. The EU sells 13% of its pork overseas, with China as biggest buyer. Imagine your regular bak kut teh stall suddenly having to pay more for ribs. Unthinkable.

Here's where it gets interesting. While the lowered tariffs sound like peace offering, look closer and you'll spot traces of leftover bak kut in the teeth. European leaders recently complained about China's record $1 trillion trade surplus. Meanwhile, Beijing countered by squeezing rare earth exports earlier this year. Classic case of 'you tekan my EV industry, I kacau your semiconductor supply'. Sound familiar? It's like watching Malaysia-Singapore water price negotiations, but with higher stakes.

The human impact isn't just boardroom talk. European pig farmers were sweating bullets when temporary tariffs hit 62.4%. Meanwhile in Singapore, our beloved roast pork sellers watched wholesale prices like hawks. One Bukit Merah supplier told me last month, 'If EU pork becomes luxury item, must switch to Brazilian or Canadian. But taste not same lah'. True enough hoh. Food inflation remains stubborn across ASEAN, partly thanks to these trade catfights.

But wait, got hidden twist also. The EU's Common Agricultural Policy subsidizes European farmers to the tune of billions yearly. Now they're crying foul over Chinese market distortions? A bit pot calling kettle black, don't you think? Reminds me of that time Indonesia banned palm oil exports while complaining about trade barriers. International trade rules sometimes resemble wet market bargaining - everyone shouts loud, but eventually meet halfway.

Silver linings though. Lower pork tariffs mean more stable prices for China's domestic consumers facing economic headwinds. European exporters get five years of breathing room. Behind the scenes, the deal shows both sides learned from US-China trade wars. Unlike America's 'maximum pressure' approach, this has more give-and-take flavor. Reminds me of kopitiam uncles negotiating mahjong debts - firm but always leave face.

The real winner here might be Southeast Asia. With great powers distracted by pork and EVs, ASEAN quietly becomes more attractive for manufacturing diversification. Vietnam's electronics exports doubled this quarter. Thailand just signed new EV battery deals. Even Malaysia's semiconductor hubs report record investments. When elephants fight, the mousedeer finds better grass to graze.

So what's next? Well, Brussels still needs to resolve those semiconductor export controls with the Netherlands. China wants Dutch tech delegations to visit. The dance continues. But hey, at least now we know - whether it's bak kut teh ingredients or EV batteries, everyone comes to the bargaining table eventually. Like my kopitiam coffee uncle always says, 'No need fight until so jialat. Later still need do business tomorrow.' Wise words for trade negotiators everywhere.

Disclaimer: This article reflects the author’s personal opinions and interpretations of political developments. It is not affiliated with any political group and does not assert factual claims unless explicitly sourced. Readers should approach all commentary with critical thought and seek out multiple perspectives before drawing conclusions.

Jun Wei TanBy Jun Wei Tan