Let me paint you a picture of European politics right now. Imagine 27 people trying to parallel park a cruise ship during a hurricane while arguing about whose turn it was to bring the map. Thats essentially whats happening with this weeks European Council summit on Ukraine aid, and honey, the vibes are rancid.

Heres the tea. Ukraines about to run out of money by April. Not like oh darn we cant afford another fighter jet money, but oh god people wont get pensions or hospitals wont have morphine money. We're talking about a 71 billion euro budget gap. For context, thats roughly enough cash to buy Taylor Swift seventeen times over, assuming she even wants to be owned, which she absolutely does not.

Now normally when democracies face existential threats against authoritarian aggression, we do the thing where we pretend to function. But Europes doing its best impression of a middle school group project where one kid refuses to work unless everyone uses Comic Sans font. That kid is Belgium.

See, the EUs big plan was to take 210 billion in frozen Russian assets sitting mostly in Belgiums Euroclear financial hub and send it to Ukraine. Genius. Poetic justice. The political equivalent of making Putin buy the bullets hell get shot with. But Belgiums new PM Bart De Wever a name that sounds like a rejected James Bond villain keeps blocking it.

Why? Because Belgium fears Moscow might threaten to, I dont know, bomb them with expired coupons for free borscht. Its like watching someone refuse to throw a life preserver to a drowning man because it might scuff the paint. The domestic political calculus here is bleak. De Wevers voters would apparently rather preserve Belgian financial stability than prevent mass starvation in Kharkiv, which really makes you think about what Brussels considers core values beyond chocolate and surreal architecture.

I remember sitting in a Warsaw cafe in 2022, just three months after Russias invasion, watching Polish families line up to donate winter coats for Ukrainian refugees. The owner had tape crosses on the window marking where Putin missiles hit nearby buildings. Every table had little jars collecting zlotys for medical kits. That visceral human solidarity felt real. Now we've reached the bureaucrat phase of the conflict, where technocrats argue about bond yields and indemnity clauses while widows dig trenches.

German Chancellor Friedrich Merzs warning that the EU will be severely damaged without a deal is the political equivalent of screaming WE ARE CURRENTLY ON FIRE into a conference call where everyone has muted themselves. Latvia keeps pitching qualified majority voting just overrule Belgium already. But heres the kicker. Belgian officials told Politico Euroclear would just freeze the funds out of spite anyway. That's next level passive aggression. Takes me back to my college roommate hiding the router whenever I ate her leftover pad thai.

Meanwhile, the plans backup options are falling apart faster than bargain bin toilet paper. Commission President Ursula von der Leyen floated joint EU debt borrowing which is basically putting Ukraines survival on the Eurozone credit card. Hungarys Victor Orban already blocked that faster than you can say illiberal democracy. Slovakia’s new pro Russian PM Robert Fico is making noises like he’d rather lick frozen lampposts than help Kyiv. Its exhausting.

The best part? This whole circus is unfolding as American politicians debate whether to watch Ukraine bleed out. Its like both sides of the Atlantic decided to host competing incompetence conventions. I keep thinking about that 2019 Trump phone call with Zelenskyy you know the one. Back then, the debate was whether military aid should come with political favors. Now the debate is whether aid should come at all. Progress.

This isnt just geopolitical failure. Its a human catastrophe with spreadsheets. When Viktor in Kyiv cant get his insulin because some Belgian financial regulator worries about hypothetical lawsuits from oligarchs, we’ve failed every moral algebra. The delay has concrete consequences cutting public services in April, possible debt default by summer. Yet the urgency in Brussels feels less red alert and more maybe after lunch.

What grinds my gears isnt Belgian caution. Its the pattern. EU leaders have committed seventeen times to support Ukraine as long as it takes, except apparently when it takes money from our vaults or involves mild professional inconvenience. They tabulated. They declared. They absolutely did not follow through. Remember after Bucha when every leader said never again with misty eyes? Never again… unless compliance requires paperwork.

Now to be fair, America has its own dysfunction around Ukraine aid. But heres the difference. When President Trump wanted European NATO members to boost defense spending, he didnt politely distribute suggestion cards at summit cocktail hours. He called them deadbeats to their faces and threatened tariffs. Within two years, Germany was actually hitting the 2% GDP defense target for the first time since the Cold War. Say what you will about methodology, but the man understood leverage.

The EU could learn something there. Hard power isnt just F 16s. Its economic coercion that matches the stakes. The idea that Belgium or Malta gets veto power over life or death security decisions while artillery kills children is preposterous. EU foreign policy often resembles a group chat where everyone needs permission to react with emojis.

Where does that leave Ukraine? Same place theyve been for 620 days. Bleeding and begging for scraps from wealthier nations allergic to their own commitments. The EUs dithering is Vladimirs best strategist. I guarantee Russian state TV is looping this summit drama between clips of Tucker Carlson waxing poetic about Moscow subway tiles.

Ultimately, this comes down to credibility. Not just Europes. The entire democratic worlds. If we wont upend some minor financial protocols to stop genocide, what exactly would move us? Right now, autocracies are watching. China sees Taiwans future in Ukraines present. Iran gauges Western resolve as it enriches uranium. The EUs leaders are effectively negotiating more than a loan package. Theyre advertising how much pain democracys defenders must endure before help arrives.

I keep thinking about the Ukrainian filmmaker I met last year in Prague. Her apartment building in Dnipro was shelled four days after she fled. She said I’d never understand how it felt watching Telegram videos of neighbors digging through rubble where her kitchen used to be. Shes right. But I do know this. Either Europe drains Putins frozen slush fund to rebuild Dnipro, or we surrender the moral high ground forever. No pressure Bart.